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VO2 max may be the single strongest predictor of how long you live — and it falls ~10% per decade if you don't train it. See where you stand against population norms, and what the evidence says.
Norms from the Cooper Institute / ACSM (80,000+ treadmill tests). Not a diagnosis.
Half of men in their forties test at 37.8 ml/kg/min or better, and half of women at 26.7. That is the middle of the population, not a goal. Researchers on tape name roughly 30–31 ml/kg/min as the floor for staying independent in your eighties, and 50–55+ as the range worth training toward. Full table below — it is the same one the calculator scores you against.
Median man, 20s → 70+
48.0 → 24.4
Median woman, 20s → 70+
37.6 → 18.3
About half the number, across fifty years, without training. That decline is the part you can change.
Cooper Institute / ACSM norms, ml/kg/min. Find your age row, then read across to see where a number lands.
| Age | 5th | 10th | 25th | 50th | 75th | 90th | 95th | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–29 | 21.7 | 23.9 | 30.5 | 37.6 | 44.7 | 51.3 | 56.0 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 30–39 | 19.0 | 20.9 | 25.3 | 30.2 | 36.1 | 41.4 | 45.8 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 40–49 | 17.0 | 18.8 | 22.1 | 26.7 | 32.4 | 38.4 | 41.7 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 50–59 | 16.0 | 17.3 | 19.9 | 23.4 | 27.6 | 32.0 | 35.9 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 60–69 | 13.4 | 14.6 | 17.2 | 20.0 | 23.8 | 27.0 | 29.4 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 70+ | 13.1 | 13.6 | 15.6 | 18.3 | 20.8 | 23.1 | 24.1 |
high 20s to 30, last decade1 over 30 at 80 is top 2.3%2 18 is the line of independence3 |
| Age | 5th | 10th | 25th | 50th | 75th | 90th | 95th | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–29 | 29.0 | 32.1 | 40.1 | 48.0 | 55.2 | 61.8 | 66.3 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 30–39 | 27.2 | 30.2 | 35.9 | 42.4 | 49.2 | 56.5 | 59.8 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 40–49 | 24.2 | 26.8 | 31.9 | 37.8 | 45.0 | 52.1 | 55.6 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 50–59 | 20.9 | 22.8 | 27.1 | 32.6 | 39.7 | 45.6 | 50.7 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 60–69 | 17.4 | 19.8 | 23.7 | 28.2 | 34.5 | 40.3 | 43.0 | at least 35 men, 30 women4 |
| 70+ | 16.3 | 17.1 | 20.4 | 24.4 | 30.4 | 36.6 | 39.7 |
high 20s to 30, last decade1 18 is the line of independence3 |
The 70+ row is the oldest published band, so we compare anyone 80 or over against it rather than extrapolating past the data.
The highlighted column is not from a population table. Each number is what a researcher said on tape, verbatim, at the second linked below. Where no researcher names a number for a row, the column shows a published study instead.
high 20s to 30, last decade · 80 and over
“people at least based on what they're telling you they want to be able to do in the last decade of their life are going to require a V2 Max of about 30 so high 20s to 30”
Peter Attia, on The Drive, at 46:51
over 30 at 80 is top 2.3% · women, 80 and over
“that will fall such that by the time a woman is 80 to be in the top 3% pardon me the top 2.3% she would have to be greater than 30 millit per kilogram per minute”
Peter Attia, on The Drive, at 16:21
18 is the line of independence · old age floor
“And so a standard number is about 18, is what we call the line of independence. So if your VO2 max is below 18 milliliters per kilogram per minute, it's very hard for you to live by yourself.”
Dr. Andy Galpin, on Huberman Lab, at 21:26
at least 35 men, 30 women · every adult
“So in general, for men, a minimum number we want to look at here is 35 milliliters per kilogram per minute. And for women, that would be about 30.”
Dr. Andy Galpin, on Huberman Lab, at 112:51
elite for two decades younger
“you pretty much need to be two decades younger at the elite level if you're thinking you're going to live to be about 90”
Peter Attia, on The Drive, at 17:27
falls 8–10% per decade
“that declines at about 8% to 10% per decade. So if you have to be at 30, and let's just assume you're going to be doing that at 90”
Dr. Peter Attia, on Huberman Lab, at 36:16
about 10% per decade from your 40s
“in general people think V2 Max declines about 10% per decade starting in the fourth decade so sometime in your 30s”
Dr. Mike Joyner, on The Drive, at 53:40
Enter your number, or estimate it from a 12-minute test.
Your VO2 Max
ml/kg/min
Percentile
— percentile
Category
—
vs — · Cooper Institute / ACSM norms
Now
—
+10 yrs, untrained
—
+20 yrs, untrained
—
Projection at the untrained ~10%/decade rate (FoundMyFitness, 42:12).
Precis membership
Your percentile, the full Cooper table, and the verdict on VO2 max are free and complete. Nothing above is held back.
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Pro adds
positive partly neutral negative Each researcher and each study counts once per claim, however often they come up.
A higher VO2 max lowers the risk of death from all causes.
14 sources: 12 positive, 1 partly, 1 negative.
Researchers say
1 partly
Olav Aleksander Bu, on The Drive, at 15:17
Partly Video · Opinion
Open the tape at 15:17 →“you could still be healthier with a little bit lower view to Max”
Studies show
12 positive, 1 negative
13 papers we read
Other primary study, N Engl J Med, 2002, PMID 11893790
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →After adjustment for age, the peak exercise capacity measured in metabolic equivalents (MET) was the strongest predictor of the risk of death among both normal subjects and those with cardiovascular disease.
Trial or observed group, Circulation, 2008, PMID 18212278
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Exercise capacity is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in blacks and whites.
Other primary study, Mayo Clin Proc, 2016, PMID 27444976
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →This study suggested that in this population, long-term CRF reduction was associated with an increased risk of mortality, emphasizing the importance of maintaining good CRF over the decades.
Other primary study, JAMA, 1989, PMID 2795824
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Higher levels of physical fitness appear to delay all-cause mortality primarily due to lowered rates of cardiovascular disease and cancer.
Other primary study, JAMA Netw Open, 2018, PMID 30646252
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Increased CRF was associated with reduced long-term mortality with no observed upper limit of benefit.
Pooled analysis, J Sport Health Sci, 2021, PMID 34198003
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Our findings support the relevance and use of CRF as a powerful and useful prognostic indicator for mortality in patients with CVD.
Other primary study, J Am Coll Cardiol, 2022, PMID 35926933
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →The association of CRF and mortality risk across the age spectrum (including septuagenarians and octogenarians), men, women, and all races was inverse, independent, and graded.
Pooled analysis, Mo Med, 2023, PMID 37091937
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Epidemiological studies show that cardiorespiratory fitness (is inversely related to risk of all-cause mortality, with no increased mortality risk in the most fit cohort.
Pooled analysis, Br J Sports Med, 2024, PMID 38599681
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Our findings showed that high CRF is strongly associated with lower risk of premature mortality, incident chronic conditions (ie, hypertension, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation, dementia and depression), and poor prognosis in those with existing chronic conditions.
Pooled analysis, J Sport Health Sci, 2025, PMID 39271056
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Our meta-analysis underscores the importance of CRF as a key predictor of all-cause and CVD mortality.
Pooled analysis, Br J Sports Med, 2025, PMID 39537313
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →In conclusion, our results demonstrate a significant reduction in both CVD and all-cause mortality risk in fit compared with unfit individuals regardless of BMI.
Other primary study, JAMA, 1995, PMID 7707596
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Men who maintained or improved adequate physical fitness were less likely to die from all causes and from cardiovascular disease during follow-up than persistently unfit men.
Other primary study, J Clin Endocrinol Metab, 2025, PMID 38864459
Negative Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Despite being a strong predictor of mortality, VO2max is not causally associated with T2D or longevity.
Other primary study, N Engl J Med, 2002, PMID 11893790 Study · positive
After adjustment for age, the peak exercise capacity measured in metabolic equivalents (MET) was the strongest predictor of the risk of death among both normal subjects and those with cardiovascular disease.
Trial or observed group, Circulation, 2008, PMID 18212278 Study · positive
Exercise capacity is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in blacks and whites.
Other primary study, Mayo Clin Proc, 2016, PMID 27444976 Study · positive
This study suggested that in this population, long-term CRF reduction was associated with an increased risk of mortality, emphasizing the importance of maintaining good CRF over the decades.
Other primary study, JAMA, 1989, PMID 2795824 Study · positive
Higher levels of physical fitness appear to delay all-cause mortality primarily due to lowered rates of cardiovascular disease and cancer.
Other primary study, JAMA Netw Open, 2018, PMID 30646252 Study · positive
Increased CRF was associated with reduced long-term mortality with no observed upper limit of benefit.
Pooled analysis, J Sport Health Sci, 2021, PMID 34198003 Study · positive
Our findings support the relevance and use of CRF as a powerful and useful prognostic indicator for mortality in patients with CVD.
Other primary study, J Am Coll Cardiol, 2022, PMID 35926933 Study · positive
The association of CRF and mortality risk across the age spectrum (including septuagenarians and octogenarians), men, women, and all races was inverse, independent, and graded.
Pooled analysis, Mo Med, 2023, PMID 37091937 Study · positive
Epidemiological studies show that cardiorespiratory fitness (is inversely related to risk of all-cause mortality, with no increased mortality risk in the most fit cohort.
Pooled analysis, Br J Sports Med, 2024, PMID 38599681 Study · positive
Our findings showed that high CRF is strongly associated with lower risk of premature mortality, incident chronic conditions (ie, hypertension, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation, dementia and depression), and poor prognosis in those with existing chronic conditions.
Pooled analysis, J Sport Health Sci, 2025, PMID 39271056 Study · positive
Our meta-analysis underscores the importance of CRF as a key predictor of all-cause and CVD mortality.
Pooled analysis, Br J Sports Med, 2025, PMID 39537313 Study · positive
In conclusion, our results demonstrate a significant reduction in both CVD and all-cause mortality risk in fit compared with unfit individuals regardless of BMI.
Other primary study, JAMA, 1995, PMID 7707596 Study · positive
Men who maintained or improved adequate physical fitness were less likely to die from all causes and from cardiovascular disease during follow-up than persistently unfit men.
Olav Aleksander Bu, on The Drive, at 15:17 Video · partly · Opinion
“you could still be healthier with a little bit lower view to Max”
Other primary study, J Clin Endocrinol Metab, 2025, PMID 38864459 Study · negative
Despite being a strong predictor of mortality, VO2max is not causally associated with T2D or longevity.
Where the sources disagree
A higher VO2 max lowers the risk of death from all causes.
Other primary study, N Engl J Med, 2002, PMID 11893790
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →After adjustment for age, the peak exercise capacity measured in metabolic equivalents (MET) was the strongest predictor of the risk of death among both normal subjects and those with cardiovascular disease.
Trial or observed group, Circulation, 2008, PMID 18212278
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Exercise capacity is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in blacks and whites.
Other primary study, Mayo Clin Proc, 2016, PMID 27444976
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →This study suggested that in this population, long-term CRF reduction was associated with an increased risk of mortality, emphasizing the importance of maintaining good CRF over the decades.
Other primary study, JAMA, 1989, PMID 2795824
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Higher levels of physical fitness appear to delay all-cause mortality primarily due to lowered rates of cardiovascular disease and cancer.
Other primary study, JAMA Netw Open, 2018, PMID 30646252
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Increased CRF was associated with reduced long-term mortality with no observed upper limit of benefit.
Pooled analysis, J Sport Health Sci, 2021, PMID 34198003
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Our findings support the relevance and use of CRF as a powerful and useful prognostic indicator for mortality in patients with CVD.
Other primary study, J Am Coll Cardiol, 2022, PMID 35926933
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →The association of CRF and mortality risk across the age spectrum (including septuagenarians and octogenarians), men, women, and all races was inverse, independent, and graded.
Pooled analysis, Mo Med, 2023, PMID 37091937
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Epidemiological studies show that cardiorespiratory fitness (is inversely related to risk of all-cause mortality, with no increased mortality risk in the most fit cohort.
Pooled analysis, Br J Sports Med, 2024, PMID 38599681
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Our findings showed that high CRF is strongly associated with lower risk of premature mortality, incident chronic conditions (ie, hypertension, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation, dementia and depression), and poor prognosis in those with existing chronic conditions.
Pooled analysis, J Sport Health Sci, 2025, PMID 39271056
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Our meta-analysis underscores the importance of CRF as a key predictor of all-cause and CVD mortality.
Pooled analysis, Br J Sports Med, 2025, PMID 39537313
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →In conclusion, our results demonstrate a significant reduction in both CVD and all-cause mortality risk in fit compared with unfit individuals regardless of BMI.
Other primary study, JAMA, 1995, PMID 7707596
Positive Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Men who maintained or improved adequate physical fitness were less likely to die from all causes and from cardiovascular disease during follow-up than persistently unfit men.
Olav Aleksander Bu, on The Drive, at 15:17
Partly Video · Opinion
Open the tape at 15:17 →“you could still be healthier with a little bit lower view to Max”
Other primary study, J Clin Endocrinol Metab, 2025, PMID 38864459
Negative Study
Read the paper on PubMed →Despite being a strong predictor of mortality, VO2max is not causally associated with T2D or longevity.
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The Cooper norms above are the whole table, free — every age band, both sexes, all seven percentiles.
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