A claim you hear on longevity podcasts

Does quitting smoking lower your cancer risk?

Strong consensus for. Of 10 studies that count, 9 agree and 1 partly agrees. 2 more are not counted.

Best for:
anyone who smokes and is weighing whether quitting still pays off.
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The claim checked: Quitting smoking substantially reduces your cancer risk Hear it at 5:23

What do the studies say?

Strong consensus for

Studies that compare people who quit with people who kept smoking find lower cancer risk after quitting, and the drop grows with the years since quitting. They are observational, in lung, head and neck, pancreatic and all cancers combined.

Computed from 10 studies that test this point, each judged by two readers, 2 of them from the abstract alone. 2 more studies are shown with a hollow dot and do not count. 2 more studies are waiting for a full read and do not count yet.

What was said on the podcast?

“if you're a smoker that's absolutely the best thing you can do is quit smoking and you can really substantially reduce your risk by quitting smoking and and it has um fairly quick benefits in terms of lowering uh cancer rates”
Kerry Courneya, a guest on FoundMyFitness · The Science of Exercise for Cancer | Kerry Courneya, PhD · 5:23 on YouTube
The point checked Strong consensus for

Quitting smoking substantially reduces a smoker's risk of cancer.

Agree 10

other primary study · 2000 · landmark

“People who stop smoking, even well into middle age, avoid most of their subsequent risk of lung cancer, and stopping before middle age avoids more than 90% of the risk attributable to tobacco.”

Smoking, smoking cessation, and lung cancer in the UK since 1950: combination of national statistics with two case-control studies. BMJ
Who: UK hospital patients under 75 with and without lung cancer in two case-control studies (1950 and 1990), plus a matched local population sample in 1990, combined with UK national statistics
PMID 10926586

other primary study · 2005 · landmark

“Inspection of the table shows that eight of the specified types of cancer and cancers of unspecified type were all clearly related to smoking, in that there were statistically significant positive trends in the mortality rates from lifelong nonsmokers through light and moderate cigarette smokers to heavy cigarette smokers and from nonsmokers through ex-smokers to continuing smokers.”

Mortality from cancer in relation to smoking: 50 years observations on British doctors. Br J Cancer
Who: male British doctors followed prospectively, smoking habits updated periodically
PMID 15668706

other primary study · 2024

“Cancer risk was reduced by approximately 50% at 15 years or more since quitting compared with that associated with continued smoking.”

Cancer Risk Following Smoking Cessation in Korea. JAMA Netw Open
Who: Korean adults in the National Health Insurance Service health screening cohort with biennial self-reported smoking status 2002-2017 (mean age 43.1 men, 48.5 women)
PMID 38319658

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other primary study · 2021

“Thus, those who quit smoking at ages 15 to 34, 35 to 44, 45 to 54, and 55 to 64 years avoided an estimated 100%, 89%, 78%, and 56% of the excess cancer mortality risk associated with continued smoking, respectively (Figure 2).”

Association of Smoking Initiation and Cessation Across the Life Course and Cancer Mortality: Prospective Study of 410 000 US Adults. JAMA Oncol
Who: US adults aged 25-79 in the National Health Interview Survey 1997-2014 linked to the National Death Index (mean age 48, 56% female)
PMID 34673892

other primary study · 2017 · read from the abstract

“CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that longer duration of smoking cessation may attenuate the risk of cancer in both men and women, and that even heavy smokers (more than 20 pack-years) were found to benefit from quitting smoking.”

Smoking cessation and subsequent risk of cancer: A pooled analysis of eight population-based cohort studies in Japan. Cancer Epidemiol
Who: participants of eight population-based prospective cohort studies in Japan
PMID 29102692

pooled analysis · 2024

“In conclusion, this meta-analysis of 65 studies from different countries showed that smoking cessation reduces the risk of HN cancer by about half, with a strong effect on the duration of cessation.”

Reduction of head and neck cancer risk following smoking cessation: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ Open
Who: adults at risk of head and neck (oral, pharyngeal, laryngeal) cancer in case-control and cohort studies; current smokers as reference
PMID 39122405

pooled analysis · 2020 · read from the abstract

Not counted. Read from the abstract. It could change the badge, so it counts once read in full.

“At 5 YSQ, the percentage of reducible RR remaining was 57.2% (45.7-67.3%); at 10 years, it was 36.9% (28.3-47.9%); at 15 years, it was 26.7% (20.2-34.3%); and at 20 years, it was 19.7% (13.3-26.4%).”

Reexamining Rates of Decline in Lung Cancer Risk after Smoking Cessation. A Meta-analysis. Ann Am Thorac Soc
Who: prospective cohorts reporting lung cancer relative risks by years since quitting, from 20 countries and territories
PMID 32603182

other primary study · 2010

“Results Quitting tobacco smoking for 1–4 years resulted in a head and neck cancer risk reduction [OR 0.70, confidence interval (CI) 0.61–0.81 compared with current smoking], with the risk reduction due to smoking cessation after ≥20 years (OR 0.23, CI 0.18–0.31), reaching the level of never smokers.”

Cessation of alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and the reversal of head and neck cancer risk. Int J Epidemiol
Who: pooled individual-level data from case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium
PMID 19805488

other primary study · 2024

“Smoking cessation significantly modified pack-years, where every year quit corresponded to a 1 − e (−0.0933) = 8.9% (95% CI 2.4%, 15.0%; p = 0.008) decreased excess risk of prior smoking.”

Excess pancreatic cancer risk due to smoking and modifying effect of quitting smoking: The Multiethnic Cohort Study. Cancer Causes Control
Who: Multiethnic Cohort participants aged 45-75 at enrollment (1993-1996) in California and Hawaii, five racial/ethnic groups
PMID 37924460

other primary study · 2013 · read from the abstract

“For the best-fitting analysis (S1), H was 9.93 (95% CI 9.31-10.60), but varied by sex (females 7.92, males 10.71), and age (<50years 6.98, 70+years 12.99).”

How rapidly does the excess risk of lung cancer decline following quitting smoking? A quantitative review using the negative exponential model. Regul Toxicol Pharmacol
Who: studies of at least 100 lung cancer cases comparing current smokers, former smokers by time quit, and never smokers
PMID 23764305

Partly agree 2

controlled trial · 2005 · landmark · read from the abstract

Not counted. Read from the abstract. It could change the badge, so it counts once read in full.

“Differences in death rates for both lung cancer and cardiovascular disease were greater when death rates were analyzed by smoking habit.”

The effects of a smoking cessation intervention on 14.5-year mortality: a randomized clinical trial. Ann Intern Med
Who: 5887 middle-aged volunteers with asymptomatic airway obstruction (Lung Health Study, 10 centers in the US and Canada)
PMID 15710956

other primary study · 2022

“We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) comparing disease incidence or mortality risks at age-at-risk of 35-84 years in ever- (overall and by certain smoking characteristics) versus never-regular smokers, both overall and separately by sex (given the substantial sex-difference in smoking prevalence 6 ).”

Tobacco smoking and risks of more than 470 diseases in China: a prospective cohort study. Lancet Public Health
Who: 512,712 adults aged 30-79 from 10 areas of China (China Kadoorie Biobank)
PMID 36462513

Disagree 0

None.

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