A claim you hear on longevity podcasts

Does lowering apoB lower heart disease risk?

The claim checked: Heart disease falls log-linearly as apoB drops Hear it at 4:40

What do the studies say?

Strong consensus for

Eight of ten studies found heart risk fell in proportion to lower apoB or LDL. Two statin trials saw a benefit; one hinted at a floor near LDL 125.

Computed from 10 studies that test this point, each judged by two readers, in full. 2 more studies are waiting for a full read and do not count yet.

What was said on the podcast?

“the only three layers of evidence you can ever look to experimental data Mr and clinical EPI and they all say the same thing there is a log linear reduction in ascvd as apob goes down”
Peter Attia, The Drive · The four horsemen of death and how to prevent them · 4:40 on YouTube
Comes up in 30 episodes of the show.
Point 1 of 2 Strong consensus for

Lowering apoB-containing particles lowers ASCVD risk log-linearly

Agree 8

trial or observed group · 2019 · landmark

“The associations between lower triglyceride level and lower LDL-C level with risk of CHD due to these variants appeared to be independent, additive, and proportional to the absolute change in ApoB.”

Association of Triglyceride-Lowering LPL Variants and LDL-C-Lowering LDLR Variants With Risk of Coronary Heart Disease. JAMA
Who: participants of 63 cohort or case-control studies in North America or Europe (UK Biobank, dbGAP studies, CARDIoGRAMplusC4D), mean age 62.7, 51.4% women
PMID 30694319

trial or observed group · 2017 · landmark

“The association with major cardiovascular events in this group was less than expected for the observed change in LDL-C level (P = .04) and instead was proportional to the attenuated change in apoB.”

Association of Genetic Variants Related to CETP Inhibitors and Statins With Lipoprotein Levels and Cardiovascular Risk. JAMA
Who: Participants from 14 North American/UK cohort or case-control studies (mean age 59.9 y, 58% women), validated in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium participants
PMID 28846118

controlled trial · 2022 · landmark

“Among those treated with the PCSK9 inhibitor alirocumab, lower achieved apoB levels (to ≤35 mg/dL) were associated with a lower risk of MACE.”

Apolipoprotein B, Residual Cardiovascular Risk After Acute Coronary Syndrome, and Effects of Alirocumab. Circulation
Who: Patients >=40 years with acute coronary syndrome 1-12 months earlier and elevated atherogenic lipoproteins despite high-intensity or maximum-tolerated statins (ODYSSEY OUTCOMES)
PMID 35770629

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controlled trial · 2016

“The corresponding HR for each 27 mg/dL lower apoB was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60–0.86; P=0.0002; Table 2).”

Reductions in Atherogenic Lipids and Major Cardiovascular Events: A Pooled Analysis of 10 ODYSSEY Trials Comparing Alirocumab With Control. Circulation
Who: Adults with established ASCVD or high cardiovascular risk (including heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia) with inadequately controlled LDL-C, mostly on maximally tolerated statins
PMID 27777279

pooled analysis · 2010 · landmark

“In these meta-analyses, the size of the proportional reduction in major vascular events is directly proportional to the absolute LDL reduction that is achieved, with further benefit from more intensive statin therapy, even if LDL cholesterol is already lower than 2·0 mmol/L.”

Efficacy and safety of more intensive lowering of LDL cholesterol: a meta-analysis of data from 170,000 participants in 26 randomised trials. Lancet
Who: participants in 26 randomised statin trials: 5 trials of more vs less intensive statin (acute coronary syndrome and stable coronary disease) and 21 trials of statin vs control (including primary prevention, diabetes, haemodialysis, heart failure)
PMID 21067804

controlled trial · 2017 · landmark

“Given these caveats, the magnitude of benefit of evolocumab in reducing the risk of major coronary events, stroke, and urgent coronary revascularization is largely consistent with the benefit seen with statins on a per–millimole-per-liter basis of LDL cholesterol lowering (Fig. S6 in the Supplementary Appendix).”

Evolocumab and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Cardiovascular Disease. N Engl J Med
Who: 27,564 patients aged 40-85 with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and LDL >=70 mg/dl on statin therapy
PMID 28304224

controlled trial · 2004 · landmark

“This difference should translate into a 20 percent reduction in clinical events, which is very similar to the 16 percent reduction we observed and suggests that much of the benefit is attributable to the difference in the degree of LDL cholesterol lowering.”

Intensive versus moderate lipid lowering with statins after acute coronary syndromes. N Engl J Med
Who: 4,162 patients hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome within the preceding 10 days, 349 sites in 8 countries, mean age 58, 22% women
PMID 15007110

controlled trial · 2015 · landmark

“The hazard ratio for clinical benefit per millimole of LDL cholesterol reduction with ezetimibe in IMPROVE-IT was 0.80, as compared with 0.78 observed with statins in the CTT meta-analysis.”

Ezetimibe Added to Statin Therapy after Acute Coronary Syndromes. N Engl J Med
Who: 18,144 patients aged ≥50 hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome within 10 days, LDL 50-125 mg/dL
PMID 26039521

Partly agree 2

controlled trial · 1995 · landmark

“As compared with placebo, pravastatin reduced the risk of fatal or nonfatal coronary events in middle-aged men with hypercholesterolemia and no history of myocardial infarction by approximately 30 percent.”

Prevention of coronary heart disease with pravastatin in men with hypercholesterolemia. West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study Group. N Engl J Med
Who: 6595 men aged 45-64, West of Scotland, hypercholesterolemia (mean cholesterol 272 mg/dL, LDL 192 mg/dL), no history of MI
PMID 7566020

controlled trial · 1996 · landmark

“Although our finding cannot be considered definitive and requires confirmation, it suggests that an LDL cholesterol level of 125 mg per deciliter may be an approximate lower boundary for a clinically important influence of the LDL cholesterol level on coronary heart disease.”

The effect of pravastatin on coronary events after myocardial infarction in patients with average cholesterol levels. Cholesterol and Recurrent Events Trial investigators. N Engl J Med
Who: 4159 post-MI patients (3583 men, 576 women) aged 21-75 with total cholesterol <240 mg/dL and LDL 115-174 mg/dL, US and Canada
PMID 8801446

Disagree 0

None.

Point 2 of 2 Strong consensus for

Clinical trials, epidemiology and Mendelian randomization all agree on this

Eight of ten studies, from drug trials, pooled trials and gene studies, tied lower LDL or apoB to fewer heart events. Most measured LDL, not apoB.

Computed from 10 studies that test this point, each judged by two readers, in full.

Agree 8

pooled analysis · 2012 · landmark

“Furthermore, we found that the association between long-term exposure to lower LDL-C and the risk of CHD was approximately log-linear, just as the association between the magnitude of LDL-C reduction and the clinical benefit of statin therapy is approximately log-linear (38).”

Effect of long-term exposure to lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol beginning early in life on the risk of coronary heart disease: a Mendelian randomization analysis. J Am Coll Cardiol
Who: European-ancestry participants from genetic studies of 9 LDL-C-lowering SNPs in 6 genes, compared with 26 statin trials and a cohort meta-analysis
PMID 23083789

controlled trial · 2017 · landmark

“Likewise, these observations are supported by data from a recent mendelian randomization study in which variants in PCSK9 and variants in HMGCR were associated with nearly identical lower risks of cardiovascular events per unit reduction in LDL cholesterol.”

Evolocumab and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Cardiovascular Disease. N Engl J Med
Who: 27,564 patients aged 40-85 with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and LDL >=70 mg/dl on statin therapy
PMID 28304224

controlled trial · 2015 · landmark

“When added to statin therapy, ezetimibe resulted in incremental lowering of LDL cholesterol levels and improved cardiovascular outcomes.”

Ezetimibe Added to Statin Therapy after Acute Coronary Syndromes. N Engl J Med
Who: 18,144 patients aged 50 or older hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome within the preceding 10 days, with LDL cholesterol 50-125 mg/dL; mean age 64, 24% women
PMID 26039521

Show 5 more Show fewer

controlled trial · 2018 · landmark

“A composite primary end-point event occurred in 903 patients (9.5%) in the alirocumab group and in 1052 patients (11.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 0.93; P<0.001).”

Alirocumab and Cardiovascular Outcomes after Acute Coronary Syndrome. N Engl J Med
Who: 18,924 patients aged 40 or older with acute coronary syndrome 1-12 months earlier and LDL-C >=70 mg/dL, non-HDL-C >=100 mg/dL or apoB >=80 mg/dL on high-intensity or maximum tolerated statin
PMID 30403574

pooled analysis · 2016 · landmark

“The RR for major vascular events per 1-mmol/L (38.7-mg/dL) reduction in LDL-C level was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.84; P < .001) for statins and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.66-0.86; P = .002) for established nonstatin interventions that work primarily via upregulation of LDL receptor expression (ie, diet, bile acid sequestrants, ileal bypass, and ezetimibe) (between-group difference, P = .72).”

Association Between Lowering LDL-C and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Among Different Therapeutic Interventions: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA
Who: Participants in 49 randomized clinical trials of 9 LDL-C-lowering interventions (mean age 62, 24% women, mean baseline LDL-C 3.16 mmol/L)
PMID 27673306

other primary study · 2020 · landmark

“Circulating lipoprotein lipids cause coronary heart disease (CHD).”

Evaluating the relationship between circulating lipoprotein lipids and apolipoproteins with risk of coronary heart disease: A multivariable Mendelian randomisation analysis. PLoS Med
Who: UK Biobank participants of European descent (mean age 56.9, 54.2% women) for lipid GWAS; CARDIoGRAMplusC4D for CHD outcomes
PMID 32203549

other primary study · 2016 · landmark

“Indeed, when the effects of each PCSK9 score and the individual PCSK9 variants included in these scores were plotted, there was a dose-dependent log-linear association between PCSK9-mediated lower LDL cholesterol levels and the risk of myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease (Fig. S3 in the Supplementary Appendix).”

Variation in PCSK9 and HMGCR and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes. N Engl J Med
Who: 112,772 participants from 14 prospective cohort or case-control studies (weighted mean age 59.9), with replication in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and DIAGRAM consortia
PMID 27959767

trial or observed group · 2019 · landmark

“In this study, triglyceride-lowering LPL variants and LDL-C–lowering LDLR variants were associated with similar lower CHD risk per unit lower level of ApoB-containing lipoproteins.”

Association of Triglyceride-Lowering LPL Variants and LDL-C-Lowering LDLR Variants With Risk of Coronary Heart Disease. JAMA
Who: participants of 63 cohort or case-control studies in North America or Europe (UK Biobank, dbGAP studies, CARDIoGRAMplusC4D), mean age 62.7, 51.4% women
PMID 30694319

Partly agree 2

other primary study · 2009 · landmark

“Concentrations of HDL-C and non-HDL-C were each strongly associated— in opposite directions—with CHD risk in an approximately log-linear manner.”

Major lipids, apolipoproteins, and risk of vascular disease. JAMA
Who: Adults without initial vascular disease in 68 prospective cohort studies, mostly Europe and North America (mean age 59, 43% women)
PMID 19903920

other primary study · 2010 · landmark

“SNPs showing strong statistical association with one or more lipid traits at the CELSR2, APOB, APOE-C1-C4-C2 cluster, LPL, ZNF259-APOA5-A4-C3-A1 cluster and TRIB1 loci were also associated with CAD risk (P values 1.1 × 10−3 to 1.2 × 10−9).”

Genetic variants influencing circulating lipid levels and risk of coronary artery disease. Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol
Who: white European participants from population cohorts and case-control studies (plus an Indian Asian replication set)
PMID 20864672

Disagree 0

None.

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